The All Blacks open the first full tour of South Africa in 30 years against the Stormers at DHL Stadium on Friday, and the loudest warning about it has come from a man who used to pick the team.
Sir Steve Hansen, who coached New Zealand for eight years, told the Rugby Unity podcast that touring sides consistently underestimate what the midweek and franchise fixtures actually are.
"One thing about the midweek games you don't fully understand until you've been involved is their job is to beat the s*** out [of the All Blacks]," Hansen said.
"They may not be Test players yet but they want to be, so they're going out to prove, 'hey, I'm good enough to be in your team Rassie'. It makes it difficult because you don't really know them that well but they've got a mindset they want to rip your head off and if you don't turn up with the right attitude and right mindset yourself, it becomes a difficult afternoon."
Dave Rennie has brought 44 players. Four franchise fixtures — Stormers, Sharks, Bulls and Lions — are stitched around four Tests against the Springboks, the first at Ellis Park on 22 August and the last in Baltimore.
The Stormers will be without openside Paul de Villiers, one of 12 Springboks who stayed at the national squad's Johannesburg base rather than travelling to Buenos Aires. De Villiers made his Test debut against England last month after Siya Kolisi withdrew late, and All Blacks back-row Wallace Sititi has clearly been watching.
"Big boy," Sititi told reporters at training in Cape Town on Monday. "He loves the collision battle. Good over the ball. He's a quality footy player. Hopefully we'll be able to see him a couple of times throughout this tour."
Sititi expects the Stormers to come at New Zealand up front regardless of who is missing.
"They're a big pack, that is what we know," he said. "But they are a big forward pack that loves to run the ball, loves the collision battle, so we've got to respect them up front. They love to use the ball as well, so we've got to be able to match them up front. We want to give our backs out wide all the opportunities they want."
Hansen had no quarrel with Rennie's squad, including the omission that generated most debate — Du'Plessis Kirifi.
"I don't think anyone was unfairly missed out," Hansen said. "Kirifi is probably unlucky because they decided that's not the loose forward they're going to need cover for. When you look at the squad and the breakdown of the squad, you've got Ardie [Savea] that can play seven, [Anton] Segner can play seven, [Luke] Jacobson can play seven."
On Ethan Blackadder, Hansen saw a selection philosophy rather than a positional call. "You talk to anybody that's played with Blackadder they just love him as a person. He's a really strong character, gives you 100 per cent, can play all three [back-row positions]," he said. "It's an indication that they want some hard-nosed people. They're going to a place where if you don't have hard-nosed people, you're going to come second."
Sir John Kirwan thinks the All Blacks win the series, but only on one condition. Speaking on the Rugby Rivals podcast, the 1987 World Cup winner put the whole thing on the forwards.
"For us to win in South Africa, the whole forward pack needs to be absolutely exceptional. When you're a forward, you know what's coming in South Africa," Kirwan said.
"South Africa have been leading the way from a scrum and forward pack point of view in the last little while. So we've got to at least match that, and we've got to scrum incredibly well. We won't win if we can't come out of the Test series by being at least equal in that scrum. If we win the series, which I think we will, then the forward pack will have to be heroes, all eight of them."
Kirwan also doubts New Zealand can spring much of a surprise after three Nations Championship outings against France, Italy and Ireland. "They'll have something up their sleeve, but I think we've shown how we want to play," he said. "At this level, it's very, very hard to hide stuff nowadays."
Jeff Wilson, reviewing the tour build-up on Sky Sport NZ's Breakdown, offered the counter-argument: parity is the target, not dominance.
"For example, we've tried to dominate the South Africans physically. We've then tried to out-flair France, out-structure Ireland. We're not going to beat them at their superpowers," Wilson said. "We have to be great at what we've done so well in the past. That is speed, that is conditioning, that is skill and putting the opposition under pressure."
"If we get parity, that's all we need," he added. "We go in with the mindset of trying to dominate, but if you get parity, that'll be enough with the other skills we have."
Mils Muliaina agreed, suggesting New Zealand had spent years trying to win the aerial contest on South Africa's terms rather than playing their own game first. Former Blues hooker James Parsons pointed to the set piece as evidence Rennie's tempo is already paying off, arguing the scrum and lineout have become easier precisely because opponents are tiring.
New Zealand last won a Test in South Africa in 2022. They have never won a full series there other than in 1996, under John Hart and Sean Fitzpatrick.
Kick-off in Cape Town is Friday night.
