The All Blacks' 2026 selection debate has a fresh pitch — and rugby analyst Julian Shaw has no interest in sitting on the fence. In a projection video that has picked up traction with New Zealand fans, Shaw set out a full backline he says requires "no debate" at several positions, while conceding others are finely balanced.
At nine, Shaw called it the easiest pick on the park. "Cam Roigard. Now, this is the easiest one in the entire backline to pick. New Zealand is now in a somewhat blessed, somewhat cursed position, a little bit like when we had Aaron Smith running the show. That is, there is our top dog halfback, there is a lot of daylight, and then there is the next best thing. The All Blacks are transformed with Cam Roigard. It is no coincidence the Canes are running rampant this year. They have the maestro at number nine."
Shaw went as far as to place Roigard in the global elite. "Roigard hasn't had the longevity of an Antoine Dupont or Jameson Gibson-Park, but on current form he is absolutely in that conversation."
The more contested call was at fly-half. With Ruben Love drawing rave reviews for the Hurricanes, many expect a changing of the guard. Shaw is not rushing. "The big question right now, should Ruben Love be given the keys to the car? I don't think so just yet. I think he should start some games at number 10 this year. I'm not going to go with Beauden Barrett. I think that Beauden is the wise Yoda in the squad. He is going to be passing on the knowledge. I still think you're going to go with Damian McKenzie. This might be controversial, but think about all of the test caps that have been poured into D-Mac at 10. I don't think you just throw that out the window."
He left a door open for a returning giant. "Richie Mo'unga might come into the mix and completely upend the entire conversation. Hopefully, we're going to see him in South Africa. But for me right now, D-Mac is still the hot hand."
On the wings, Caleb Clarke is locked in at eleven. "For me at 11, it's going to be Caleb Clarke. All Blacks need that power game. Not just that, but that aerial capacity, his ability to collect the high ball. That is going to be huge in the Republic. For me, he's an automatic selection as long as the injury bug doesn't bite."
On the other flank, Shaw reached for a bolter. "I'm going to go with a newcomer on the other wing, and that is Caleb Tangitau, who's been tearing it up for the Highlanders. You cannot beat his elusiveness, the speed, the finishing. He's a slippery customer."
That call comes at the expense of Leicester Fainga'anuku, whose defensive lapse at Twickenham last year has clearly stuck with Shaw. "The bump-off that he was on the receiving end of at Twickenham, it still lives rent-free in my head. I hate to shame the guy for one defensive blunder, but it was definitely the most cringeworthy defensive moment from the All Blacks backline last year — with the exception of the entire second half against the Springboks in Wellington, lest we forget."
In midfield, Shaw keeps Jordie Barrett at inside centre and hands Quinn Tupaea the thirteen jersey. "Jordie Barrett has to be there at 12. There's a temptation to put him at the back, I get that — security under the high ball. But I am going to partner him with Quinn Tupaea. Yes, he's more of an out-and-out 12. But think about that great game last year that he had against the Wallabies at 13. He absolutely cut the Aussies to pieces."
At fullback, Shaw will not hear arguments. "Will Jordan. Who else could it be? For me, the best attacking fullback in world rugby. He does need to shore up his work under the high bombs. He's certainly going to be tested in South Africa later this year. But man, he's the go-to man at 15."
The projected starting backline, then: Roigard, McKenzie, Clarke, Barrett, Tupaea, Tangitau, Jordan — with Fainga'anuku "an impact weapon off the bench" and Noah Hotham tagged as the long-term succession plan at nine. "Maybe it is just a great way to earn All Blacks selection," Shaw joked of Hotham's bleach-blonde dye job. "We will see."
