Julian Shaw has spent two years asking the question every All Blacks fan has been afraid to answer out loud: how do you build the depth to beat the Springboks at a World Cup when you do not see Springboks rugby in Super Rugby? In a 2026 schedule reveal video, he found the answer waiting for him on his screen.
"This is without hyperbole the gnarliest schedule I have ever seen for the All Blacks," Shaw said. "To play the Springboks number one double world champions four times in a row is incredible. But we've also got to get through these fixtures against the Lions, against the Stormers, against the Sharks, against the Bulls. Yikes."
The headline is the four-Test block against South Africa in the middle of the year, two of them at Loftus and Ellis Park. The fixtures around it are barely lighter. The All Blacks open the year christening the new Christchurch domed stadium against France — and Shaw expects a near full-strength visiting side.
"DuPont should be back from injury," he said. "If he gets through the Six Nations without any niggles, he'll be coming down. So anyone who complained last year that it was an under-strength French team coming down to the shaky isles, I have a feeling you're going to be seeing the A-listers here because of course this is the first ever Nations Championship this year."
The Ireland Test on July 18 has Shaw nervous in a different way. The Eden Park record — 51 unbeaten Tests at Auckland's fortress, dating back to 1994 — is, he reckons, on borrowed time.
"The Kiwis have three in a row on them," he said. "Don't sleep on this Irish team. If they really heat up during the Six Nations, this Eden Park record is going to be under siege again. I've got that one circled."
The back end of the year offers a chance at revenge against England after the Twickenham Grand Slam loss, but Shaw was honest about the cost. By December, the All Blacks' tank will be visibly empty, which forces head coach selection patterns most New Zealand fans usually resent.
"I think you're going to play the A-list team against Scotland," he said. "You are going to probably play some of the developmental or fringe All Blacks against Wales. I think you have to, if they're going to have any shot at beating England at home in the form they've been in recently."
It is the South African block, though, where Shaw's argument turns from anxious to almost grateful. He framed the four-Test series — and the additional fixtures against the Springboks' provincial sides — as a development opportunity New Zealand has not had since the South Africans left Super Rugby.
"Haven't we been on this channel lamenting the loss of South Africa from Super Rugby?" he said. "Haven't we been complaining about the fact that our New Zealand talent are not getting exposed to the different style, the set-piece driven style, the physicality, the power game of the South Africans? Well, here's exposure one year before the Rugby World Cup. These fixtures, particularly against the provincial teams, they are worth their weight in gold. This is development on steroids."
Shaw expected losses, and he expected the Springboks to win more of the four Tests than they lose. He pointed back to historical precedent for why that may not be the disaster it sounds.
"Whoever loses this series between the All Blacks and the Springboks might benefit the most heading into 2027," he said. "Ireland rolled New Zealand in New Zealand in 2022. That series laid it bare. That was the one good thing about it. It was crystal clear what the problems were with the All Blacks. And they started up front. You bring in Jason Ryan, you get the Rolling Maul again, you get the scrum working again. Suddenly the All Blacks are beating Ireland in a quarterfinal."
He also pointed to South Africa's own 2017 collapse — losing by almost 60 points to the All Blacks, beaten by Japan and Italy — as the bottom from which the Springboks rebuilt to win in 2019.
His verdict on the schedule landed with characteristic Shaw flair.
"Is this heaven or hell?" he said. "I think it's a little bit of both. It might feel like hell at the time. I mean, two games against the Springboks in Johannesburg. My goodness. But it could be heaven in terms of player development, in terms of accelerating the All Blacks' growth."
The two-fixture Bledisloe series at the end of the year almost felt like an afterthought. With a new head coach still being appointed in Wellington and Razer Robertson out of the picture, Shaw's take is that 2026 was always going to be defined by what happened in South Africa. The schedule, it turns out, has agreed with him.
