Ask the men who have coached or played in this fixture where the opening Test at Ellis Park will be won, and the answers converge on the same word: depth.
Tendai "Beast" Mtawarira, who won 117 caps at loosehead and knows the ground better than most, is unequivocal about where South Africa's advantage sits. He is not dismissive of the tourists — he singles out their backline for praise — but he thinks the contest is decided in front of it.
"I think it's going to be a massive contest. I think it's really exciting to have a tour of this kind happen for the first time in 30 years," Mtawarira told IOL. "That is where the All Blacks will probably stumble, against our forward pack, although they have the ability to play at a very high tempo with an agile backline that can make opponents chase shadows."
His conclusion leaves little room for hedging. "I think we can prepare ourselves for a massive battle, but I am convinced the Springboks' forwards have too much firepower. Our pack of forwards will overwhelm the All Blacks. We have an incredible group of forwards who can put us on the front foot in various ways."
Mtawarira expects South Africa to take all three home Tests — two in Johannesburg, one in Cape Town — with the final match in Baltimore the one he can see New Zealand winning. He also warned against overrating the crowd as a factor beyond the first weekend, having toured himself.
"They start feeling at home, so the crowd factor actually doesn't come into play, especially when it comes to probably that second or third Test match," he said. "I've had many Test matches at Ellis Park against the All Blacks, and they could always prevail. I think they will embrace the elements and acclimatise, or make sure they do what they need to do to prepare well."
Heyneke Meyer, Springboks head coach from 2012 to 2015, arrives at the same conclusion from a different direction — and with considerable warmth towards the opposition.
"First of all, I've got a lot of respect for the All Blacks," Meyer said on the Behind the Ruck podcast. "Myself and Steve Hansen really tried to bring the two cultures together again and the two teams because you know, after a game, guys would just leave."
He described standing at pitch level to face the haka during his tenure, "out of respect, not for the cameras to point at me", and welcomed the return of long tours with midweek fixtures against provincial sides. "I'm so happy they're also playing mid-week games where they play against youngsters that's going to benefit from this. It's going to be amazing."
Meyer's substantive point is about eligibility. Erasmus can select from a global player pool; New Zealand, in the main, cannot.
"I think it's very difficult for Dave Rennie to start his All Blacks tenure and to face the Springboks," Meyer said. He recalled that his own era carried tighter restrictions — "we could only pick a few guys outside South Africa and even your assistant coaches had to be from South Africa" — and argued the current approach is the difference.
"I think what they're doing right now, is picking our best side, and this side is very experienced and four Test matches is going to be very tough, but we've got depth. And I think that's what the All Blacks don't have," he said. "Richie Mo'unga could probably start for them. Aaron Smith can probably start for them. So, it's very difficult that they only pick guys based in New Zealand and those guys under pressure in South Africa it's not easy."
It is a pointed observation given the past week. Mo'unga, whom Meyer names as a hypothetical starter, has in fact been flown into the All Blacks camp as injury cover for centre Billy Proctor — and Rennie has already confirmed he will not be picked for the first Test.
Sir Steve Hansen, who coached New Zealand to the 2015 World Cup, sees the same depth from the other side of the fence, specifically at fly-half. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu returned from injury against Argentina, joining World Cup winners Handré Pollard and Manie Libbok in contention for the No.10 jersey.
"Look, I don't know, but what a hell of a good problem to have," Hansen said on the Rugby Unity podcast. He declined to predict a starter, arguing the pick will reveal the plan rather than the other way around.
"It comes down to what tactics the South African coaches want to employ. Do they want a tempo game, or do they want a kicking game? If you want a kicking game and you want someone that you know that's going to kick goals from anywhere under the most pressure, you go Pollard," he said. "But if you want more of a running game and more of an attacking game, then you might pick one of the other two guys."
Hansen's admiration is less for any individual than for the willingness to keep gambling on selection. "That's the beauty of what they've created through their ability and bravery to roll the dice numerous times with their selections. They've now got an opportunity to be able to play whatever type of game they want with whomever they want to play it with because they've got an arsenal of weapons to push the button on."
Ewen McKenzie, the former Wallabies coach, was prepared to commit where Hansen would not, and he also offered the most useful corrective to all this talk of riches.
"I think they'll start with Libbok, and they will have Sacha coming on later in the game," McKenzie said. "They need to jazz it up a bit, but I think that's probably how they'll go. Pollard is the back-up guy, I think, but I could be completely wrong. The beauty is that they can only pick 23. They can have 5,000 really good players, but they can only pick 23."
On the shape of the match itself, McKenzie expects nothing exotic. "I think that they'll play pretty direct. It's going to be the aerial contest; you are going to have to deal with their power game, and they're going to try and assert themselves at scrum time. There are opportunities for New Zealand to get into them in terms of lineout pressure, put some pressure on their lineout, things like that. You're gonna have to deal with their maul."
Erasmus names his 23 on Thursday, the same day as Rennie. The first of four Tests kicks off at Ellis Park on Saturday 22 August.
