Tate McDermott will run out for the Queensland Reds for the first time this Super Rugby Pacific season this weekend, with Two Cents Rugby framing his return as one of the most welcome individual subplots of a frantic Round 15.
The Wallaby halfback has been sidelined all year and was sent to play club rugby last week as a final tune-up. With sixth-placed Queensland needing to bank expected points against bottom-of-the-table Moana Pasifika, head coach Les Kiss has paired McDermott with five-eighth Carter Gordon. The Reds have also recalled Josh Canham, Luke Cannan, Carlo Tu'u-Loto, Fraser McReight, Filipo Daugunu and Josh Flook into the 23 after heavy rotation in Perth a week ago.
'Tate McDermott's been injured all season. They sent him to play club rugby last week,' the Two Cents host explained. 'So fingers crossed with those minutes under his belt he's a bit sharper. Him and Carter Gordon will be pulling the strings at nine and 10. Very much looking forward to see how they go.'
The numbers context behind the Reds' return is unambiguous. Queensland sit on 26 points and need only to bank the expected return against Moana to all but lock in a play-off slot. Bookmakers have them as 17-point favourites; the Rugby Forecast algorithm has it at 18. 'The Reds just need to bank these points, get themselves clear,' the host argued.
Hidden beneath the headline returns is the form of Reds fullback Jock Campbell, whom Two Cents singled out as 'sneakily' second only to Hurricanes wing Fehi Fineanganofo in run metres for the entire Super Rugby Pacific season — without ever generating a headline. Filipo Daugunu's return adds a strike option on the wing.
Round 15 has been framed by the channel as the round that decides the play-off bracket. The pick of the weekend is the opener: fourth-placed Crusaders at home in their sold-out new stadium against the second-placed Chiefs. Bookmakers split with the Rugby Forecast model on that one — punters have the Chiefs by one away, the algorithm has the Crusaders by two at home. Will Jordan and Chay Fihaki return for the Crusaders; the Chiefs welcome back inside centre Quinn Tupaea after a week off. With six points separating the second-placed Blues, who are on a bye, and the Crusaders, a home win could put Christchurch right on the leaders' tail going into the final round.
Elsewhere, the Waratahs travel to Canberra in must-win territory against the Brumbies. Head coach Dan McKellar has named an unchanged XV from the side that delivered an out-of-character disciplined win in Fiji, with only Joey Walton coming into the bench. Bookies make Canberra four-point favourites; the algorithm flips it and tips Sydney by one.
The Western Force, mathematically alive, host Fijian Drua at HBF Park, with Carlo Tizzano's two-try performance against the Reds last week looming large in Two Cents' analysis. The Force are bookmaker favourites by 14, though the algorithm has it closer at nine.
The Hurricanes-Highlanders fixture in Wellington is the weekend's clearest line. Bookmakers say 21 points, the algorithm says 30, and the Highlanders are now without Caleb Tangitau following his suspected Achilles rupture. TK Howden and Jonah Nareki return for the visitors, with breakdown machine Timoci Tavatavanawai — the Super Rugby Pacific season's runaway leading tackle-buster at 79 — still required to do the heavy lifting.
For Queensland, though, the focus narrows to nine and 10. With McDermott back and a kind opening fixture, the Reds are positioned to settle their own status before next Friday's final-round trip — and to ease the case for Joe Schmidt to look at the McDermott-Gordon axis when the Wallabies open their Test season against Ireland in Sydney.
