The number that has the NRL 360 panel watching the Sydney Roosters this week is 14. Fourteen minutes, in round 9, for Spencer Leniu — a starting front-rower on roughly $800,000, an Origin-credentialled middle and a player Trent Robinson signed for one specific reason. To start.
"It's going to be an interesting watch this space regarding Spencer Leniu," reporter Brent Read told the panel. "He's got 12 months left on his deal. My gut is he won't be at the Roosters next year. That's my understanding of the situation."
It is the sort of line a panellist drops only when the soft-soundings have already started. Read continued: "They'll get to a point where they'll tell Spencer at some point that there's probably not a long-term deal for him at the club, and his future may be elsewhere next season."
The panel walked through Leniu's 2026 minute count: roughly 29 minutes, then 27, then a slide through 24, with the most recent game capped at 14. Paul Kent, never quite content to leave a number alone, pushed the obvious counter.
"14 minutes for an Origin forward is bizarre," Kent said. "Is he an Origin forward this year?"
The table read: not quite. Phil Rothfield said he wouldn't have Leniu in his New South Wales side at the moment. Kent agreed: "Brandy, I wouldn't have him in my Origin side at the moment. I don't know how you can pick him."
That was Read's point. Leniu came to the Roosters from Penrith on starting front-row money, after years coming off the Panthers' bench as one of the most effective impact forwards in the competition.
"He was a bench player at the Panthers and a very effective one," panellist Braith Anasta said. "Like, he was great off the bench for you guys. Moves to the Roosters to get more time and to be a starting front-rower. Sign-on money to be a starting front-rower."
Read's framing was blunt. "You can't be paying Spencer 800 and not starting him," he said. "And at the moment, he probably doesn't deserve to be."
The market context is where it gets interesting. Two new NRL franchises are landing inside Leniu's contract window — Perth in 2027 and PNG Chiefs in 2028 — and both, the panel agreed, will pay a premium for proven middle forwards.
"There's clubs out there who cherish middle forwards," Read said. "They're a valuable entity in the modern game. You'd have no trouble finding another club and potentially getting paid that amount of money."
Anasta noted Leniu still has the rare power-forward profile that travels. "He still is pretty unique," he said. "There's not many forwards, there's not many power forwards like Spencer that get over the advantage line. Granted, he hasn't done it that often this year."
The Roosters' problem, Read suggested, isn't only Leniu. The panel ran through the cap puzzle: Connor Watson is leaving partly because the club had budgeted for him to chase the now-defunct R360 league; Mark Nawaqanitawase and Dominic Young are on big money; Ruben Garrick is incoming for 2027; the club has had to upgrade the deals of Naufahu Whyte and others.
"Apparently they don't have it," Read said. "They've upgraded Naufahu Whyte. There's a couple of those guys that have been on really good deals for the club that have gone significantly up — not marginally, but significantly — that they've had to pay for as well. So to get rid of Leniu would actually free up some quality money."
Tim Mannah, the former Eels prop on the panel, picked up the danger for the Roosters in moving early. "It is a surprise though for the Roosters, because when they're used to doing things much later in the season, in terms of moving players on. They get to a point — once they're not in finals, they usually like to bunker down — and they're a chance of winning this year's premiership. So this is a fine line for them to tow and tiptoe around."
The other side, Anasta argued, is exactly why a quiet conversation might already be happening. "If they're not sold on Leniu, knowing that the vultures are circling and there's opportunities there with the new clubs and big money, they know that he'll probably get picked up."
It is a peculiar problem. The Roosters are a chance of winning a premiership this year. They are also being forced into 2027 cap conversations because PNG and Perth are about to flatten the market, and one of their highest-paid forwards is currently averaging less time on the field than some bench specialists.
Fourteen minutes does not look like a number a $800,000 starter can wear for long.
