South Africa have kept their grip on the top of the World Rugby rankings after the second round of the Nations Championship, but the margins at the summit remain wafer-thin.
The Springboks' 42-28 win over Scotland at Loftus Versfeld on Saturday added just 0.02 rating points, leaving Rassie Erasmus's side on 93.96. The 14-point margin was modest by the standards the formula demands of the world's No.1 team against a top-10 opponent, so barely anything changed. It did not need to. South Africa still sit almost three points clear at the top.
The All Blacks, second on 91.04, could not make the ground many had expected. Scott Robertson's team hammered Italy 47-17 in Turin yet banked nothing at all, because beating a lower-ranked side by the anticipated margin does not move the needle under World Rugby's system. Ireland, third on 89.32, were caught in the same trap after a 36-20 defeat of Japan.
That left the interesting movement to the chasing pack. England produced the weekend's most eye-catching result on the rankings ledger, their 73-8 demolition of a 14-man Fiji worth 0.84 points and enough to lift them back above Scotland into fifth on 84.75. For the second week running, the two sides traded places. Scotland slipped to sixth (84.09) despite pushing the Springboks close, with Argentina a fraction behind in seventh (84.06, up 0.29) after their five-try win over Wales in San Juan.
France, fourth on 87.43, edged up 0.68 following their comeback win over Australia in Brisbane. The Wallabies were the round's biggest fallers among the established sides, dropping 0.68 points to eighth on 80.60. Fiji slid to ninth after the Twickenham-sized beating in the English rout, with Italy holding tenth.
Further down, Japan climbed a place to 11th even in defeat, nudging ahead of Wales, who dropped to 12th. The standout climb belonged to Spain, who jumped four spots from 20th to 16th after a 32-19 win over Tonga in the Nations Cup, banking a hefty 1.02 rating points, the most earned by any side over the weekend.
The volatility is partly by design. World Rugby tweaked its ranking formula in June, a change the governing body said at the time "reflects an evolving competition landscape" as the new Nations Championship reshapes the calendar. The upshot is that the biggest scorelines no longer guarantee the biggest jumps; who you beat, and by how much relative to expectation, matters more than the raw points on the board.
For now the race that most South African and New Zealand supporters are watching remains locked. With three rounds gone and the semi-finals looming, the All Blacks can only overhaul the Springboks if South Africa stumble and Robertson's men win out. On the weekend's evidence, the gap is closing by inches rather than strides.
