The Chiefs sit top of Bryn Hall's Super Rugby Pacific power rankings after Round 10, but the story of the table behind them is one of teams slipping, stretching and — in the case of the Brumbies — outright sliding down the ladder. In the latest Two Cents Rugby review, Hall takes a swing through the competition with an analyst's eye and delivers a verdict that is sobering for several would-be finals contenders.
The headline remains the Chiefs' overtime win over the Hurricanes, which lifted them to top spot on the power rankings and represented the Hurricanes' second loss of the season. For Hall, it had the feel of a season-defining match.
"It was a magnificent game between both sides," he said. "And it feels like it was a final, don't it? Could well be a preview of the season Super Rugby final. They are certainly the form sides, but, man, you never know. There's been other seasons when someone has been seemingly flying high and been knocked out."
The Blues, despite beating the Highlanders, have not convinced Hall that they belong in the top tier just yet. They have gone up one spot — but no further — and sit behind a clear gap from the top two.
"I put a pretty big gap between two and three on the whiteboard because it still feels like there's a big gap between the Blues and the top two sides," Hall said. "Like they beat the Highlanders, but they conceded 40 points and were put under a lot of pressure. They were not in a position to just see the game out comfortably, and ended up making it a squeaky bum finish, which is not what you feel like a championship side does."
It is below the Blues where Hall's verdict is most severe. The Brumbies have tumbled three places after their home loss to the Fijian Drua, a defeat that even in the context of the Drua's recent form looks like a serious setback for Stephen Larkham's men.
"The Brumbies I've got down three spots. Three. That is a brutal, brutal result to be taken when you try to push for the top three," Hall said. "They are fourth on the table. So to have them sixth on the power rankings is a big difference because in reality they are pushing for the top three. The power rankings would suggest they are, you know, just flirting with the teams who are just outside the playoffs, but the recent record is not that great."
Hall reeled off a list: a good win over the Chiefs, followed by a loss to the Waratahs, then a narrow escape against the Highlanders, and now a home loss to the Drua. "To be losing to one of the bottom sides who never win away from home in the manner they did is really disappointing and they just played poorly. They dropped so much ball. It was crazy."
The Crusaders, meanwhile, have dropped on form but only modestly on the power rankings, saved largely by the fact that the Brumbies' loss was worse than their own. The eight-time champions face Super Round this weekend — and the opening of a new stadium in Canterbury — which Hall sees as a potential galvanising moment.
"Their new stadium should be a reason for them to, I don't know, galvanise and make a push at the business end of the season," he said.
Among the mid-table sides, the Force have remained in ninth despite beating the Crusaders at HBF Park. "The Force are weirdly enough the same spot as they were last week despite the win over the Crusaders. It was a cracking game," Hall said. "But it's not enough to get them into eighth spot because of how other results went. So ninth doesn't feel right. They are 10th on the table but I still feel like they are better valued ninth and 10th."
And at the bottom, Moana Pasifika — who have not won since Round 1 — are drifting out of the competition entirely. "They haven't won since round number one. It's hard to see them getting a win between now and the end of the comp. But we've seen some other upsets, so it would be nice."
It leaves a Super Rugby Pacific 2026 in which the top two look settled, the Brumbies' finals case has become suddenly fragile, and the rest of the chasing pack have been reshuffled by a single weekend of results. The Chiefs-Hurricanes rematch in a potential final is exactly the kind of storyline the competition had been waiting for — but Hall's warning rings true. Nothing is guaranteed.
