Super Rugby Pacific's chasing pack has run out of road. With three rounds left and the Brumbies sitting in sixth on the ladder just five points ahead of a four-team scrum for the final play-off berths, Two Cents Rugby's Round 13 preview frames the weekend as one closer to a knockout draw than a regular round.
'Time is running out for the chasing pack,' Two Cents host Peter Burke set out at the top of his preview. 'The Brumbies are in sixth. The Highlanders, the Waratahs, the Drua, the Force are all hot on their heels. How can they go in round 13 to try and keep themselves in the hunt? Or will somebody be eliminated this week?'
The most loaded fixture, Burke argues, is the Saturday afternoon clash at Forsyth Barr Stadium. The Highlanders and Waratahs sit level on 20 points, eighth and ninth respectively, both five points adrift of the Brumbies. With one of them all but eliminated by Saturday night, Burke's verdict was blunt: 'It feels like a pre-knockouts knockout match. If they don't win now, especially if the Brumbies win their game, it's a long, long way back.'
The Highlanders bring back Caleb Tangitau from concussion, with Burke labelling the All Blacks back-three contender 'an absolute weapon' and noting that Argentine lock Thomas Lavanini's return reinforces a forward pack already led by competition tackle leader TK Howden. The Waratahs, meanwhile, lean into Tane Edmed's boot and Max Jorgensen's strike threat, with Harry Potter back from a long lay-off on the bench. The rugby forecast algorithm has the Highlanders by five, the bookies by seven; nobody is calling it a blowout.
The other 'must-win' is at GIO Stadium, where the Force travel to face the Brumbies in what Burke calls 'literally do or die stuff' for Simon Cron's side. Allan Alaalatoa returns at tighthead for the Brumbies, with Tom Wright slowly building back into form at fullback, while the Force's recent run, including a flogging of the Reds and a narrow loss to the Drua in Suva, gives them genuine bite. Burke's algorithm says Brumbies by nine, the bookies by six, but he flagged the upset risk: 'The bloody Brumbies lost to the Drua in Canberra, so who knows.'
The weekend opens in Christchurch with the Crusaders hosting the Blues, where Burke's worry is purely up front. 'Tongan, Slater and Martin is our starting front row. There's no Ben Aki and there's no Marcel Renata. Both these guys are out injured. So our propping stocks are looking a bit thinner.' He still likes the Crusaders four points ahead with Sevu Reece back, while flagging that George Bower is celebrating his 100th match. The Friday night double-header continues with the Reds hosting the Chiefs, the algorithm handing the visitors a five-point edge thanks to a fresh week off the bye and the return of senior forwards to a shifted front row.
The round's only predicted blowout is at North Harbour Stadium, where the Hurricanes have made wholesale changes against bottom side Moana Pasifika, with Ruben Love and Jordie Roby out and a heavily revamped halves combination. 'It is quite literally the bottom up against the top sides in this round 13 clash,' Burke summarised, with the algorithm settling on Hurricanes by 33 and the bookies a more cautious 29.
For the Force, Highlanders and Waratahs, that arithmetic is nothing compared to the playoff arithmetic. Lose this week and, as Burke put it, the maths starts looking less like a finals run and more like a long offseason.
