Two Cents Rugby has crunched the bookies' odds and the algorithm forecasts ahead of the URC quarter-finals, and the verdict from the popular YouTube analyst is that reigning champions Leinster are heavy favourites, but not as heavy as the cash flowing in suggests.
"These are bookmakers' odds converted into percentages, so take that with a degree of caution," the host of Two Cents Rugby explained at the top of his playoff preview video. "We'll contrast it at the end with the algorithm's odds because there's quite a bit of difference there. The algorithm takes any of the emotion out of it, and bookies' odds get swayed by where the money is going. I feel like there's a lot of money going on one team in particular where the algo is not quite as convinced."
That team is Leinster. The bookies have Leo Cullen's side at a 42 per cent shot to lift the trophy, with the Rugby Forecast algorithm pegging them closer to a third. Both rate them clear favourites, but the gap with second-favourite Glasgow Warriors, who finished top of the regular-season table, is far smaller in the algo's eyes than it is at the bookmaker's window.
"Despite the fact that they would in all likelihood be at home, Glasgow are not the favourites for the URC title," Two Cents Rugby noted of the Warriors, who sit on 21 per cent with the bookmakers. "That goes to reigning champions Leinster, who are paying two bucks, or two euros, two pounds, whatever currency. They are hefty favourites. There's going to be a fair bit of cash going on Leinster."
The biggest divergence between bookmakers and algorithm sits below the top two. Rugby Forecast's algorithm rates the Bulls as second favourites at 23 per cent, ahead of Glasgow on 20, while the bookmakers have the Pretoria side at just 13 per cent. "They did have a fine end to the season compared to some of the other sides," Two Cents Rugby explained. The Stormers, by contrast, get crunched downward by the algorithm to a 7 per cent shot, with the host pointing to Cape Town's shaky run-in.
And then there is the dark horse. Two Cents Rugby was bullish on Connacht despite the Irish side being given just 2 per cent by the bookies. "I for one would not want to have drawn Connacht of the four bottom half sides. Connacht are in like in-season form, man. I think they've got better form than anybody else. I wouldn't want to be playing them. They could roll anybody, I reckon." The algorithm agrees, rating Pat Lam's old side at a 10 per cent shot, easily the biggest mover among the bottom four qualifiers.
For Cardiff, the only Welsh representative left in the bracket, the picture is brutal. Both bookmakers and algorithm give them a 1 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, although Two Cents Rugby acknowledged the playoff spot itself was a significant achievement. "They did beat the Stormers in that final game of the regular season to secure their playoff spot. But in Cape Town in a fortnight's time, it's probably going to be pretty tough for them."
The Lions, in their first URC playoff appearance, are given 3 per cent by the bookies and 6 per cent by the algorithm, with Two Cents Rugby noting their underdog status comes down to one issue. "If they can get their attacking expansive offload game going again, they'll be a difficult team to live with, but they're not as good on the road, and they are on the road to Leinster."
Munster, traveling to Pretoria to face the Bulls, are given the best chance of the bottom four sides, though "it ain't by much," Two Cents Rugby conceded.
The host's parting reminder was a sobering one for Leinster supporters. "Of the four URC finals we've had thus far, the home side has only won it once, and that was Leinster in the last season. The other three, Glasgow, Munster, and the Stormers, all got their URC titles won on the road."
For Cullen's side, that statistic, plus a Champions Cup final against Bordeaux-Begles before they can even think about the URC knockouts, is the only real reason to look at those 42 per cent odds and wonder whether they are too short.
