Victor Matfield has delivered a prediction that stunned both his interviewer and, by his own admission, himself — declaring that the All Blacks will end the year as the No. 1 ranked team in world rugby.
Speaking on All Blacks TV, the former Springbok captain and World Cup winner laid out his top four with a directness that caught everyone off guard.
"So, I won't be surprised if New Zealand is first," Matfield said. "I can't believe I'm saying this, but I can't believe you're saying that, mate. I cannot believe you're saying I can't believe it as well. New Zealand will be one."
Matfield then placed Ireland second, his own Springboks third, and France fourth — a top four that reflects both current form and, in his view, the structural choices that continue to hold the French back.
"Ireland will be two and South Africa will be three and France will be four," he said.
Matfield was unflinching on why France sit lower than their talent should dictate, pointing at a domestic calendar that has long been a source of tension with World Rugby.
"France don't really care about the internationals. They only care about World Cups and six nations," he said.
He went further, challenging the French federation to confront the link between their club-first model and their failure to convert enormous resources into a World Cup title.
"World Rugby has been trying to get the French to change their club competition to fit in with the rest of the world. And every year the French say no," Matfield said. "But I think the French also need to have a look. Why haven't they won a World Cup yet? And maybe that's the problem for them."
The conversation then turned to the Rugby Championship, and Matfield's Springbok instincts took over. Despite South Africa facing the brutal draw of playing New Zealand twice in New Zealand, he refused to write off his compatriots — and even revised his forecast mid-sentence.
"I might actually change my prediction here now that I'm thinking about it," he said. "We only play New Zealand. We playing them twice in New Zealand and so if we win one there, we will win all four other games. We can still win the Rugby Championship."
The crucial detail is that one of those fixtures is scheduled for Eden Park, Auckland — a venue where the All Blacks have not lost a Test for decades. Matfield, who knows the ground as well as any visiting lock ever has, believes the Boks are capable of ending that run.
"So Rugby Championship I think there's a chance that South Africa will beat New Zealand at the holy grail in Auckland," he said.
For a player whose career was defined by battles against the All Blacks, the willingness to tip them as world No. 1 is striking. But Matfield's forecast is rooted in reality: New Zealand's Super Rugby Pacific sides are producing well-prepared players, the All Blacks are rebuilding with purpose, and the Six Nations has once again exposed gaps in the northern contenders.
Whether the ranking actually shakes out that way by year-end will depend on the Rugby Championship, July Tests and the autumn internationals. But Matfield's warning to the rest of world rugby is clear — the All Blacks are coming back.
