Two rounds remain in the Super Rugby Pacific regular season and Stan Sport's Rugby Heaven panel pulled out the ladder math this week to walk through exactly what each side still needs. The headline finding: only one team is mathematically out — and the Aussie chase for a home quarter-final is still very much alive, provided the New Zealand derbies fall the right way.
"If we take a look at the ladder at the moment, the only team who is mathematically zero chance of making the finals after 14 rounds is, I'm sad to say it for these supporters and the team, Moana Pasifika," Justin Harrison said. "But every other team is still a chance of making the finals — right down to the Drua, who are sitting there in 10th position."
The Australian conversation began with the Brumbies, the conference's highest-ranked side on 29 points and currently coming off the bye. "Best finish possible for them is third," Harrison said, "depending on getting a couple of wins in their last two games, the Crusaders losing at least one game, and the Blues — who've got the bye this week — losing their final round game as well." A home quarter-final, he acknowledged, would be the prize. "We're desperately hoping from an Australian perspective that one team, and maybe it's the Brumbies, who's the best place at the moment, can secure a home quarter final. But a bit's got to go their way."
His co-host Hugh Sheppard agreed that the Brumbies, of all the contenders, sit most in control of their own destiny. "A lot of these big New Zealand derbies are really going to impact the Australians," he said. "The most important thing for all the Australian teams at the moment is just to win. Brumbies feel like they're out of that little mid-season funk that they were in, starting to play some really good football the last couple of weeks. Coming off the bye this weekend and going up against the Tahs in Sydney — for the Brumbies, the next couple of weeks is actually quite a nice little run into the finals for them."
Harrison's verdict on the Brumbies was the most positive of the Australian read. "It's all about control, isn't it? You don't want to be waiting on someone else to produce a result for you," he said. "If you look at all of the permutations, which is a small intestine of options, the Brumbies seem to be the most in control of their own destiny. So best finish of course three — but reasonably comfortable to have a red-hot swing at top six."
The Reds, currently sixth on 28 points, are the next-best Australian side. Their permutations are more demanding. "Reds are the next best, currently sitting sixth on 28 points," Harrison said. "Still a chance themselves of finishing top three. They need to obviously win, with bonus points, their last two games against Moana and the Drua. They need the Crusaders to lose too, and they need the Blues to lose their last game, and there needs to be a big change in points differential."
The Reds' fixture list — Moana Pasifika followed by the Drua — should at least be manageable on paper, but as Harrison flagged, the points differential swing required to leapfrog several New Zealand sides is a tall order. The panel returned to the same conclusion every Aussie side faces: hold home, hope for derby chaos.
Below the Reds sit the Force, the Tahs and the Hurricanes-chasing pack of Australian sides that still have something to play for. The Drua, despite sitting 10th, are not mathematically eliminated either, although their pathway requires a near-perfect run plus assistance from above. Moana Pasifika are the only side already out and, on the panel's read, are the season's biggest disappointment in terms of failing to convert tight games into points.
The TLDR from Rugby Heaven: every Aussie side still in the race wins or hopes. Brumbies most in control, Reds still mathematically alive, and the home quarter-final dream alive only if the Crusaders or Blues drop a points-differential bomb in the next fortnight.
