If the Springboks had to play a World Cup final tomorrow with everyone fit, who walks into the 23 and who watches from the stands? South African analyst SG Rugby attempted exactly that thought experiment this week, picking a matchday squad that lurches almost identically to the side that lifted the Webb Ellis Cup in 2023 — but with one or two telling tweaks at fly-half and on the bench.
The front row picks itself, in his view. Ox Nché remains the world's best loosehead, with Malcolm Marx alongside and Thomas du Toit at tighthead. The Bath move and the imminent return to the Sharks, he argued, has lifted du Toit to a new level.
"He's just become such a clean player right now," SG Rugby said of du Toit. "I think the move to Bath really helped him. He just he's an absolute professional. He's like found confidence. He just understands how he can impact the game and really add value to the team."
In the second row he sticks with Eben Etzebeth and Ruan Nortjé, while flagging that the captain's lock has not been at his peak. "As much as people don't want to believe it, his form's been slacking recently. He's definitely gone in a bit of a decline with form." The Etzebeth-Nortjé partnership remains, but with the caveat that the senior man needs to find his 2023 self again.
Nortjé, by contrast, drew unreserved praise — and an early prediction. "He's a leader for the Bulls. I think he's going to Japan at the end of the year. So obviously Rassie's given him a call and said, 'Hey, go to Japan. Save your body. You're going to be a key guy.' And I really do think Ruan Nortjé could be the captain of the Springboks going into the next World Cup. I just see it happening."
The loose trio reads as the most familiar combination in world rugby: Siya Kolisi at six, Pieter-Steph du Toit at seven and Jasper Wiese at eight. Asked to compare du Toit and Etzebeth on an all-time list, SG Rugby leaned to the flanker. "I would just give Pieter Steph the edge over Eben Etzebeth on my all-time Spring list, but it's very close. Those two are absolute legends in the spring jersey and world rugby legends as well."
The two big calls land in the half-back jerseys. Cobus Reinach — not Grant Williams — is named the starting nine, with Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu at 10. "There's going to be guys saying Andre Pollard needs to be number 10. There's going to be guys saying Manie needs to be number 10. That's a good thing. There's a lot of debate around who should be the number 10 for the Springboks. I think it should be Sacha. He's been the number one choice now for the last few years."
Kurt-Lee Arendse takes 11, with the Damian de Allende-Jesse Kriel centre pairing kept intact and Cheslin Kolbe at 14. Damian Willemse gets the 15 jersey ahead of Aphelele Fassi, with SG Rugby suggesting his future is at 12 alongside Ethan Hooker after 2027.
The bench leans heavily Bulls, with Jan-Hendrik Wessels narrowly missing for Akker van der Merwe (here listed as Yan Kobla in the analyst's pronunciation), Gerhard Steenekamp at 17 and Vincent Koch at 18. "If you were to play him on the bench, he becomes the best bench prop in the world," he said of Koch. "No doubt about it."
Marco van Staden gets 19, RG Snyman is omitted from the cut, and Kwagga Smith claims the 20. The split goes 6-2, with André Esterhuizen as the hybrid 21, Grant Williams at 22 and Manie Libbok closing the game at 23.
The Pollard omission is deliberate. "I think Andre Pollard's done a lot of amazing things for the Springboks," SG Rugby said. "I think he kind of was brought in to counteract Manie's bad kicking in the 2023 World Cup, but now we have Sacha who's going to be giving the keys to the team, leading the team. And we've seen in the big games, the Springboks keep on consistently selecting Sacha at 10 and Manie Libbok at 23."
Libbok's recent form is, he argued, the strongest case for the call. "Manie's kicking in the last year has become extremely good. The other day, I think he got 11 out of 11 or 10 out of 11 kicks in Japan. He's changed his style. He's changed his technique. He has a much shorter run up."
The near-misses, in his view, are a who's who of the URC: Wessels, Franco Mostert, Salmaan Moerat, André-Hugo Venter, Marnus van der Merwe and Canan Moodie among them, with Apelele Fassi the unlucky 15. "There's obviously so many players I missed out, so many players I couldn't mention. The crop of players we have right now, there will be a lot of guys getting debuts this year, 100 percent. But we are a year out from the World Cup and I think this is the strongest team to take to a World Cup final if they play today."
