The inaugural Nations Championship reaches its decisive stretch this weekend with the two hemispheres locked together. After two rounds, North and South are level at six wins apiece, though the northern sides edge the tie-breakers, having scored 399 points and 57 tries to the South's 377 and 53.
Round three, all played on Saturday 18 July, could tilt the balance - and reshuffle the World Rugby rankings in the process.
The biggest prize is at Eden Park, where New Zealand host Ireland in a match that carries the world's No. 1 ranking with it. South Africa sit top despite facing 12th-ranked Wales in Durban, but the Springboks cannot add to their rating and are exposed: if they lose and the All Blacks beat Ireland by more than 15 points, New Zealand will climb to the summit. Ireland have their own path - a win by more than 15 at Eden Park, combined with a heavy South African defeat, would return them to No. 1 for the first time since November 2024.
Planet Rugby expects the front-runners to hold firm, tipping South Africa by 40 over Wales and New Zealand by a slender five over Ireland.
At the other end of the table, Australia are staring at history of the wrong kind. Joe Schmidt's final match in charge, against Italy in Perth, could see the Wallabies drop out of the world's top 10 for the first time since the rankings began in October 2003 - a scenario that would unfold with a heavy defeat and favourable results elsewhere for Fiji or Japan. Schmidt, whose side has lost six in a row, insists the gap is smaller than the scoreboard suggests.
"It's been incredibly frustrating, and it's been frustrating because I just keep feeling that we're not far off," Schmidt said. "I know people will look at the stark results, and that's how you're judged."
There is upside on offer too. Scotland can reach an equal all-time high of fifth with a 15-point win over Fiji, while Japan, under Eddie Jones against France, can return to the top 10 for the first time since July 2023 if they end the weekend unbeaten. England and Argentina, ranked fifth and seventh, could swap places depending on the outcome in Santiago del Estero, a fixture Planet Rugby narrowly favours England to win by three.
England head coach Steve Borthwick is relishing a raw away-day in a football-mad country still celebrating Argentina's run to the World Cup final. "We expect a fantastic atmosphere with passionate home support," he said. "It promises to be a great occasion."
The full round three card: South Africa v Wales, New Zealand v Ireland, Australia v Italy, Argentina v England, Fiji v Scotland and Japan v France. By Saturday night one hemisphere will hold the bragging rights - and perhaps the world's top ranking with it.
