Rugby YouTuber Wildkard has framed the Western Force's win over the Queensland Reds in Round 14 of Super Rugby Pacific as the result that has cracked the bottom of the top six wide open — and given the Waratahs a slim but real path back into the finals.
In his post-match review, Wildkard noted the Reds' losing-bonus point keeps them ahead of the Waratahs by only two points, with two rounds left for both teams. New South Wales sits below Queensland on the table but, in his run-home maths, controls something close to its own destiny if it can beat the Brumbies at home and the Force away.
"You need to be in the top six to make it in the finals," Wildkard explained. "The Waratahs are just two points below the Reds. There's two weeks left. The fact that the Western Force has beaten the Reds again has really kind of opened up the door a little bit for the Waratahs to potentially get through."
For the Force, who came into the game without an injured Donaldson, Wildkard's read was that this version of the Perth side did not look as sharp as the one that blew the Reds away earlier in the season, but they still managed to do the thing this campaign has been built on.
"The good thing about Western Force this week, just like they did so well against the Reds and so well against the Crusaders, is that they backed themselves. They didn't try to kick penalty goals. They actually played to control the clock a lot of times, especially in the second half, to just grind the clock down," he said.
He was particularly taken by an experiment in the second half involving the rugby league convert and converted fullback Trevon Pritchard, who has been one of the spring's most-discussed bolters.
"Trevon Pritchard was on the field in the second half and he got the ball in the back field and he punted it. He did a massive punt. He kicked the ball from inside his own 22 all the way to the Western Force 22 metre line — over a 50-metre punt," Wildkard said. "It is interesting to see the rugby league player do a bit of kicking. He's pretty good under the high ball."
The Reds' problems, in Wildkard's view, were largely set-piece. "The Reds lineouts were horrendous this game. They lost so many lineouts, both under pressure and just being overthrown and being taken by the Western Force. Really, really poor," he said. "It is something that, once again, it's really disappointing to see Wallaby-level players not able to execute a lineout."
Wildkard mapped out the remaining schedule for the contenders. Queensland's run home is Moana Pasifika away and the Fijian Drua at home — both winnable, but with Moana Pasifika playing what amounts to a final round in a side that is about to be disbanded, Wildkard suggested Reds fans should be 'sweating' over the first of those.
The Brumbies face Moana Pasifika away in the final round after hosting the Waratahs, leaving open a scenario where Canberra loses both and slips. Wildkard's pragmatic read on the Force themselves: realistically out of the top six even with two bonus-point wins, but architecturally responsible for the chaos behind them.
With the Highlanders unable to climb because of an enforced bye and a final-round trip to a top-of-the-ladder side, the back end of the run-in is now effectively a four-team scrap for sixth between the Reds, Brumbies and Waratahs — with the Force pulling the strings as opponents.
